Speaker
Description
Phenomenological optical model potentials (OMPs) have played an essential role in scattering calculations for several decades. Despite their successes, none have had their parametric uncertainty fully quantified, making reliable extrapolation difficult. To address this gap, we have developed a generic OMP uncertainty quantification framework that leverages Markov-Chain Monte Carlo for OMP parameter inference. Using this framework, we have revisited the original analyses for the Koning-Delaroche and Chapel Hill '89 potentials, assigned well-calibrated uncertainties, and validated their effectiveness against a broad test corpus of recent experimental scattering data. Finally, we propagate these new uncertainties into two illustrative studies: predictions of neutron cross sections along well-studied isotopic chains, and examination of selected proton-induced reactions relevant for astrophysical nucleosynthesis. We conclude that, contrary to common practice, the substantial inherent uncertainty of standard OMPs can no longer be ignored.
This work was performed in part under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.